"Categories of Risk", or "When Everything is Emphasized Nothing is Emphasized"

[98G]

"Categories of Risk", or "When Everything is Emphasized Nothing is Emphasized"

Warning labels. Everything has one or more. Every medication says not to take with alcohol. The sleeping pills warn about causing drowsiness. What do we accomplish? We teach people to ignore warning labels, so that when it really matters they ignore that one too.

We squawk and scream here on SS about something being unsafe. I propose a labeling system for "unsafe".

Category 1 UNSAFE - attempting to do something in this category will have a higher than 50% chance of resulting in catastrophe even if attempted once. Things like trying to towbar a 5ton at highway speed with a pickup truck. (Don't ask - I once talked a guy out of trying this).

Category 2 Unsafe - not something you want to try outside of an emergency. Towing a nonrunning 5ton with a chain attached to the tow vehicle and air tanks full. Acts of this order.

Category 3 Unsafe - things you'll probably get away with, but if something unexpected happens it'll bite you. Towing a 5ton with another 5ton without airlines and the brakes caged. Operating a truck with caged brakes, etc.

Category 4 unsafe - not the best way to do things, but not likely to get you, with a small enough sample size. Towing an empty M105A2 with a 3/4 ton pickup truck etc.

Legal and Safe are two completely separate issues. Legal varies by location. Safe is universal. Please please please no comments about legality.

 

[porkysplace]

A internet forum probably isn't the best place to post pictures or discuss unsafe and illegal things that people (members) do.
It doesn't show the hobby in a good way .

 

[The HUlk]

How about discussing the potential safety hazards of hypothetical situations? I'm thinking category 4 or higher.

 

[gimpyrobb]

I think its safe to say(hahahahaha)


We should remove safety labels and let the problem sort itself out.

 

[The HUlk]

Warning labels. Everything has one or more. Every medication says not to take with alcohol. The sleeping pills warn about causing drowsiness. What do we accomplish? We teach people to ignore warning labels, so that when it really matters they ignore that one too.

I am often surprised at how little attention is paid to things that are quite high in risk. Like the driver who was looking down at her phone and totalled my wife's new car recently (no injuries thank God). Even though that was seemingly category 3? on the proposed scale, the potential for death was high making it quite risky. I would think a good rating system should take probability and severity into consideration. Perhaps a two digit system where the first digit is the worst possible outcome...

1= Death or Dismemberment
2= Life Changing
3= Hardship or Financial Loss
4= Something To Complain About When Telling Stories

Second digit would be the odds of it occurring like the original proposal.

Worst case would be a 11.

So the driver looking down at her phone while accelerating down the street in the wrong lane would be at least a 13.

 

[The HUlk]

We should remove safety labels and let the problem sort itself out.

The Darwin safety system. It's worked for centuries and continues today even with labels.

 

[clinto]

I am often surprised at how little attention is paid to things that are quite high in risk. Like the driver who was looking down at her phone and totalled my wife's new car recently (no injuries thank God). Even though that was seemingly category 3? on the proposed scale, the potential for death was high making it quite risky. I would think a good rating system should take probability and severity into consideration. Perhaps a two digit system where the first digit is the worst possible outcome...

1= Death or Dismemberment
2= Life Changing
3= Hardship or Financial Loss
4= Something To Complain About When Telling Stories

Second digit would be the odds of it occurring like the original proposal.

Worst case would be a 11.

So the driver looking down at her phone while accelerating down the street in the wrong lane would be at least a 13.

It took me a long time to recognize this, but people assess risk in two very different ways.

Some people look at a situation and think "How likely is the bad outcome?". If there is a low likelihood of the bad outcome, they'll move forward.

The other worldview is "If the unlikely event occurs, how bad will the outcome be?".

When I had lived enough life to recognize this difference (i.e. got old) it really changed how I viewed risk.

 

[98G]

It took me a long time to recognize this, but people assess risk in two very different ways.

Some people look at a situation and think "How likely is the bad outcome?". If there is a low likelihood of the bad outcome, they'll move forward.

The other worldview is "If the unlikely event occurs, how bad will the outcome be?".

When I had lived enough life to recognize this difference (i.e. got old) it really changed how I viewed risk.

One example of this is the preference to drive vs fly. Statistics show that driving is more risky, but it isn't perceived that way...

 

[The HUlk]

One example of this is the preference to drive vs fly. Statistics show that driving is more risky, but it isn't perceived that way...

Driving is far more risky than most folks realize. It's almost always a 1 on the first digit. The second digit varies wildly due to the many situations that occur on the road. When the roads are icy it's a category 11 but some folks will drive in this situation regardless just to get fast food(category 22).

 

[Recovry4x4]

What kind of fantastic stories could we tell if it weren't for the idiocy of mankind. The only pics we would have would be selfies. BTW, never in the history of human existence has man ducumented himself so much, doing so little. I don't care for selfies.

 

[frank8003]

Risk and Chance

Risk is the study of the known hazards
Chance is the probability that the hazard will be realized

 

[USAFSS-ColdWarrior]

Did I miss something?

No. I just scrolled back and re-read the WHOLE thread.
And again, I musta missed it.

Surely it's there. But I just cannot see it.

WHERE IS THE WARNING LABEL ON THIS THREAD ?!?!?!?


Somebody's gonna get hurt around here.

 

[Scar59]

Here is the FAA accepted Risk Assessment Process the air industry utilizes. Having trouble loading the graft.


• Likelihood of Occurrence:
Choose a likelihood value from the list below. This will determine how likely that the hazard
will result in the consequence identified. This value will be combined with a severity value to
determine an overall risk assessment value.
–
Frequent – Continuously experienced
–
Occasional – Likely to occur
–
Remote – Unlikely, but possible to occur
–
Improbable – Very unlikely to occur
–
Extremely Improbable – Almost inconceivable the event will occur


• Severity of Consequences:
Choose a severity value from the list below. This will determine how serious the consequence
of the risk occurring would be. This value will be used with the frequency value to determine
the overall risk assessment value. Use the consequence description previously described to
estimate the severity of the risk associated with the hazard.
–
Catastrophic – Loss or breakdown of an entire system or sub-system; accident with
one or more fatality
–
Hazardous – Partial breakdown of a system or subsystem; incident with serious injuries
and/or major damage to aircraft
–
Major – Incident with non-life threatening injuries; mechanical malfunction or human factor
event; violation of regulation or company policy/procedure
–
Minor – May result in poor operator performance or minor disruption of process; minor
incident or injury and/or minor aircraft damage; use of emergency procedures
–
Negligible – Little or no effect on performance; less than minor injury and/or no aircraft
damage


• Calculate Risk Assessment:
Utilizing the Risk Assessment Matrix, determine the overall risk value based on the
determinations made for frequency and severity.

 

[frank8003]

Risk and Chance

Risk is the study of the known hazards
Chance is the probability that the hazard will be realized

This part gets underlined or bold or italics or something
That is the important part
"study of the known hazards"

 

[USAFSS-ColdWarrior]

"study of the KNOWN hazards"

Known hazards are easy.
It's those "unknown", unforeseen little "MURPHY" baskards that will sneak up and bite you in the arse every time.

Murphy NEVER sleeps......

But neither does GOD - So pray and pray hard for HIS protection.

 

[BenRoberts]

I'm with gimp on removing the warnings. I'm a fan of the don't stick your fingers in the mower blades

 

[Scar59]

I'm with gimp on removing the warnings. I'm a fan of the don't stick your fingers in the mower blades

"I'm not saying let's eliminate all the stupid people. I'm just saying let's remove all the warning labels and let the problem work itself out." -been my tag line for awhile...

 

[Trailboss]

This in no way belittles the above efforts to increase safety awareness in our hobby. Everything we do has some degree of risk of injury or death associated with it. It's how you manage that risk that determines the probability of death or injury occurring at any specific time. If you have no common sense and don't recognize the risk, the probability of a happy and long life decreases tremendously. John Wayne - "Life is tough, but it’s tougher if you’re stupid."

That said, consciously evaluating every activity you do and trying to assign risk and probability numbers may be great for awareness discussion here, but impractical in real life. Even with good awareness and proper management to minimize the risk in with MVs, rare events of low probability can overcome all your safety efforts. We tragically lost one experienced member (may he RIP) who was driving his MV on a clear, wide open road because he was hit from behind by a semi driver traveling way over the speed limit and not watching the road. I'm still bothered by that and watch my rear view mirrors closely, but I will not stop enjoying and driving my MVs down crowded highways. Awareness and knowledge of how to inflate a lock ring tire safely allows us to enjoy our deuces. Inattention or ignorance may get you killed.

Living a life with the goal of eliminating risk in my opinion lowers the Quality of Life through fear. If you stay in bed all day, you only have to worry about falling trees, tornados and meteors, but you have forever lost the Time allotted to you to experience life. At 66, I'm much more aware of my mortality than when I was a teenager, but I can't live my life determined to eliminate risk to prolong life at the expense of enjoying life. I started riding motorcycles last year at age 65, but took a safety course and I don't split lanes in stopped traffic at 110mph. But even safe motorcycle riders have a much greater probability of dying than car drivers. Owning, driving and working on MVs has inherent risks, but we all enjoy the experiences and accomplishments. Safely awareness is important, but don't be afraid to live your life and do the things you always wanted to do.

"Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!" — Hunter S. Thompson

 

[frank8003]

OK
I done
Can go someplace else now

John Wayne - "Life is tough, but it’s tougher if you’re stupid."

 

[John S-B]

I could go on for hours on some of the stupid things that the powers that be want you to do to "be safe", that are really meaningless. Reflective vests and the notorious "PT belts" are useless and not needed 90% of the time. And the news reporters that have to explain to you every time it snows that roads can be slippery with snow...
I went through so many suicide prevention training sessions during my deployment that I was ready to slash my wrists, set myself on fire, and jump in front of a truck just to make a point...